From Bloomberg
by Matthew Lynn
Another day, another episode in the Greek rescue saga. Over the weekend, after five days during which Greek debt took a battering on the markets, the euro area’s governments met, talked, sweated, and then came up with their traditional solution. They dipped their fists into a big pot of euros and threw money at the problem.
And yet, to use an image that is appropriate for the subject, the Greek debt crisis is a hydra: a beast with many heads. Chop off one, and a couple more grow in its place. Hercules may have finally defeated the animal. It isn’t likely the current crop of Greek or European officials will achieve anything quite so heroic.
This version of the rescue package isn’t going to work any better than the last one did. All it does is buy more time. The only real solution to Greece’s problems is Irish-style austerity. One way or another, it’s going to happen. The sooner they make a start on it, the better for everyone.
Last week, Greek borrowing costs surged to an 11-year high. Bond investors had taken a long, hard look at the last Greek rescue package and decided they didn’t believe a word of it. Greece was promised aid from its fellow euro countries, as well as the International Monetary Fund, but only with money at market rates. The trouble is, Greece can’t afford market rates. That solved nothing.
Subsidized Loans
This time, euro-area leaders compromised. A rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) was put together. Funded by the euro area, together with the IMF, the cash will be subsidized, but not by very much. The euro-area loans, if made, will pay about 5 percent, slightly less than Greece has to pay the bond market to borrow money right now.
Yesterday, it looked to have done the trick. Yields on Greek debt dropped. Stocks rose, particularly those of Greek banks. Hedge funds betting against the beleaguered country will have taken a hit if they didn’t adjust their books fast enough.
But does it really fix anything? Of course not. The issue facing Greece is simple. It isn’t that the bond markets won’t lend the country money on reasonable terms. It is that the markets have looked at the Greek economy, decided it is in deep trouble, and resolved not to lend it any more money. Not even 45 billion euros can solve that.
Greece has a budget deficit of almost 13 percent of gross domestic product. It has borrowed too much money for too long. Worse, rather than using that money to invest in improving the efficiency of its economy, it has blown it on lavish public spending and generous welfare benefits. It aims to reduce its budget shortfall to 8.7 percent of GDP this year.
Three Solutions
There were always only three real fixes.
One was to default on its debts, and let the banks that lent them the money take the consequences.
The next was to exit the euro, and massively devalue its new currency.
The third was the Irish solution. Embark on a serious, often painful, and politically tough austerity program to get the deficit under control.
None of them is easy, and each comes with a heavy price attached. If you default, you have to expect the capital markets to be closed to you for at least a decade. You aren’t burdened with the old debts, but you can’t raise any fresh money. And it’s hard for a country to grow when it can’t borrow.
Euro Exit
Exiting the euro allows you to devalue. That will boost industry. And if you can swap euro debts into “new drachma” debts, you effectively get to default as well. But you can’t devalue your way back to prosperity — if you could, Zimbabwe would be the richest country in the world.
Irish-style austerity involves big cuts in living standards. It takes a huge amount of leadership and social solidarity. The Irish have managed it. Whether the Greeks can, remains to be seen.
All three involve sacrifices. But subsidized loans? The idea that this fixes anything is nonsensical. If the country can’t afford to pay 7 percent, it can’t afford to pay 5 percent either. All it does is put off the day of reckoning. Six months, or a year, it doesn’t make much difference.
The markets will test this deal, just as they did the earlier version. Either the yield on Greek debt will remain stubbornly high, in which case Greece will be forced to use all the bailout money very quickly. Or else, attention will move on to the other highly indebted countries. Spain, Portugal or Italy could all be in the firing line soon.
‘We Can’t Help’
That will just pose more questions. What happens when the 45 billion euros runs out? Will more be made available? Or is there a point at which the rest of the euro members say, “Sorry, we can’t help you.”
And what happens when Spain or Portugal comes under attack? Do their governments get bailed out on the same terms as Greece? And if not, why not?
The markets will demand answers to those questions, and sooner or later they will get them.
The only realistic solution is the Irish one. An over- indebted country has to accept that once the money runs out, it must cut spending. If necessary, living standards must fall. Once that hit has been taken, you can start growing again. But it can’t be avoided.
The euro-area governments have ducked the real issue. Until those questions are finally resolved, the Greek debt crisis will remain a hydra: a beast that just keeps on growing new heads. The next one will be back to bite very soon.
(Matthew Lynn is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
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To contact the writer of this column: Matthew Lynn in London atmatthewlynn@bloomberg.net.
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